What Is Monte Carlo Simulation? And Why Does It Matter for Policy?
Roll a die once, you get a number. Roll it 10,000 times, you get a distribution. That distribution tells you more than any single forecast.
Spain: Running to Stand Still. 14 Positive Rules. 14 Negative.
Fertility drops below 1.0. Rent takes 48% of income. Unemployment drops 40%. Every tailwind offset by an equally powerful headwind. 8% growth in a decade.
Poland's GDP Grows 15%. The Engine Says: "Stagnating."
Fertility at 1.12. Net migration drops to zero. Population 65+ hits 26.7%. A demographic time bomb hiding inside the EU's best growth story.
France's GDP Drops 5.8% by 2035. And That's the Baseline.
Three structural traps fire at once: Tax Wedge at 45.2%, debt crossing 120% of GDP, and 26.8% aged 65+. 20 negative rules vs 13 positive.
You Are 28, in Germany, Working in Data & AI. What Does 2035 Look Like?
Your salary nearly doubles to $81,071. But inflation eats a third of the gains. A median house costs $585,161. Full personal projection inside.
Can Italy Survive $110/Barrel Oil for 4 Years?
Stress-testing the OECD's Hormuz scenario. 72% of simulated futures show structural stress. GDP per capita drops 4.7%, comparable to 2008.
Romania vs. Greece: The Convergence No One Is Talking About
Romania grows 52%. Greece contracts 17%. 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations show a GDP crossover is on the table. But Greece's P90 upside tells a different story.
Is the "Grecovery" One Oil Shock Away From a Total Stall?
The IMF says Greece is on track: debt to 110%, growth at 1.8%. We ran 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations through 2035. The P50 median for debt lands at 168%.