Is the "Grecovery" One Oil Shock Away From a Total Stall?

The IMF's Optimism

Last week, the IMF published its 2026 Article IV consultation on Greece. The headline narrative is overwhelmingly positive: debt falling from 145% to 110% of GDP by 2031, steady growth at 1.8%, a primary surplus holding at 3.8%, and what the Fund calls a "Remarkable Recovery."

On paper, Greece has earned it. Early debt repayments, fiscal discipline, structural reforms. The country has come a long way from the sovereign debt crisis of the 2010s.

But there is a problem with this picture: it is a single number. One GDP growth rate. One debt trajectory. One path forward.

So I decided to stress-test it.

What the Simulation Shows

Using WorldSim, I ran two scenarios for Greece through 2035. Each scenario generates 2,000 Monte Carlo paths across 26 macroeconomic KPIs, connected by 100+ structural coupling rules.

GDP per capita drops 15% on the P50 median path, from $27,170 to $23,187 by 2035. The full range: $11,195 at the P10 pessimistic tail, $43,289 at the P90 optimistic end.

75% of simulated trajectories experience structural stress. Only 20% show genuine improvement.

And here is the sharpest divergence from the IMF: public debt. The IMF projects debt falling to 110% by 2031. The simulation's P50 median lands at 168%. The P90 pessimistic tail hits 193%.

The Structural Pressures

Greece has four structural pressures that interact and compound over a decade:

• Demographics. Population 65+ hits 29.3% by 2035. Fertility sits at 1.24, well below replacement.
• Energy dependency. Self-sufficiency is at just 16.5%. Every spike in global oil prices feeds directly into inflation and household budgets.
• Debt dynamics. The debt overhang suppresses growth, which worsens the ratio, which triggers austerity. A familiar loop.
• The RRF phase-out. Greece is a top beneficiary of the EU Recovery & Resilience Facility. The program concludes August 2026.

But There Are Good Paths Too

This is not a doom piece. 20% of trajectories show genuine improvement. GDP upside potential reaches +87%. Greece has made real progress. The early debt repayments are meaningful. The fiscal discipline is real.

The question is whether the structural foundations can absorb the next shock without reverting to crisis dynamics. The distributions show the range. The range is what matters.